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Novo Nordisk (NVO) GLP-1 Drug Regarded Safe for Brain by Oxford

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Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) was once again in the news on Jul 12 after the University of Oxford announced results from an exploratory one-year study of semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, showing that the drug was not associated with a risk of adverse neuropsychiatric outcomes compared with other antidiabetic medications. 

On the contrary, treatment with semaglutide was associated with benefits like lowering the risk of cognitive problems and nicotine misuse. This opens the scope for further evaluation of the drug to potentially treat several brain ailments.

Semaglutide is the active ingredient in Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet, which are approved for type II diabetes, and Wegovy injection, which is approved for weight management.Semaglutide has been the key driver of Novo Nordisk’s stupendous growth in the past few years.The GLP-1 segment is an important class of drugs for multiple cardiometabolic diseases and is gaining significant popularity. 

The study conducted by Oxford evaluated semaglutide compared with three other antidiabetic medications, sitagliptin, empagliflozin and glipizide, in separate cohorts for treating several potential neurological and psychiatric indications. The report was published in the Lancet medical journal.

The stock gained 1.6% in response to the news. Year to date, shares of NVO have rallied 37.3% compared with the industry’s 24.2% growth.

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Novo Nordisk is currently the global market leader in the GLP-1 segment, with around 54% market share (as of March-end), primarily on the back of its semaglutide medicines.

Wegovy, approved by the FDA in 2021, is the key top-line contributor for Novo Nordisk and has been under the spotlight in recent times. In 2023, Wegovy sales were up 420%. Despite supply challenges, Wegovy is seeing strong prescription trends and is generating impressive revenues and profits for Novo Nordisk. The company is investing heavily to ramp up its production capacity to meet the growing demand.

Please note that Novo Nordisk gained a major victory in the heart disease market in March 2024 when the FDA approved Wegovy for reducing the risk of serious heart problems in obese or overweight adults. The label expansion of Wegovy now reaffirms that it is not just a cosmetic drug. Hence, the expanded label is expected to improve insurance coverage for Wegovy, making it more accessible and affordable to patients. The expanded use will likely further boost the drug’s sales in 2024 and beyond.

Additionally, Novo Nordisk has also initiated a phase III study in 2021, evaluating semaglutide in patients with early Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Per the ClinicalTrials.gov website, the duration of NVO’s AD study is expected to be approximately three years and four months, with top-line data expected in the second half of 2025.

As a result, it is understood that semaglutide is still quite some time away from making its debut in the AD market. However, there are other large biotech firms that already have approved AD drugs, such as Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) and Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) . Therefore, Novo Nordisk does not enjoy the first-mover advantage in this market as it did in the obesity market.

Recently, the FDA approved Eli Lilly’s donanemab for treating early symptomatic AD.The drug will be sold under the brand name Kisunla for treating early symptomatic AD in adults with mild cognitive impairment as well as those with the mild dementia stage of AD with confirmed amyloid pathology.

Kisunla will be the second drug on the market to treat AD. Biogen and its Japan-based partner Eisai’s Leqembi was approved by the FDA for early AD in the United States in July 2023. Leqembi is also approved in China and Japan. Regulatory applications seeking approval of Biogen/Eisai’s Leqembi are under review in the EU.

Zacks Rank and Stock to Consider

Novo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

A better-ranked stock from the drug/biotech industry is Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT - Free Report) , carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arcutis Biotherapeutics’ 2024 loss per share has remained constant at $1.60. During the same period, the consensus estimate for 2025 loss per share has remained constant at $1.14. Year to date, shares of ARQT have skyrocketed 228.8%.

Arcutis Biotherapeutics beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average earnings surprise of 14.93%.

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